Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.149839 2.878562 3.886809 5.427000 7.801734 1.147214e+01 17.896211
2025-04-20 1.386001 2.114297 3.313488 5.572694 10.096525 1.976582e+01 45.809159
2025-04-27 0.998379 1.696110 3.029876 6.080209 14.044384 3.874634e+01 159.588839
2025-05-04 0.733769 1.361458 2.723054 6.435754 19.061163 7.905564e+01 793.970081
2025-05-11 0.541622 1.078068 2.368985 6.472095 24.428142 1.618790e+02 7398.688581
2025-05-18 0.396435 0.831314 1.963751 6.032527 28.199569 3.050664e+02 285348.223433
2025-05-25 0.289889 0.630916 1.571344 5.277965 29.390246 5.095544e+02 NaN
2025-06-01 0.238407 0.545334 1.460514 5.574128 40.703598 1.751267e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 0.197082 0.470032 1.340237 5.740343 54.849067 8.190530e+03 NaN
2025-06-15 0.169379 0.421689 1.284583 6.248657 82.901278 1.576083e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 0.146014 0.377176 1.217819 6.659597 123.736738 2.522851e+10 NaN
2025-06-29 0.122944 0.325450 1.092984 6.488021 156.312512 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.101338 0.272463 0.938521 5.881071 170.284845 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.089052 0.246160 0.887620 6.149733 258.126296 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.080505 0.229642 0.873056 6.824774 476.706134 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.072379 0.211932 0.842663 7.326038 862.334289 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.064334 0.192012 0.789293 7.444666 1388.911093 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.056141 0.169251 0.708110 6.980149 1717.284535 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.048327 0.146059 0.613799 6.118710 1620.735382 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.044448 0.137030 0.596538 6.510657 3334.038271 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.040728 0.127615 0.572000 6.743005 6757.174688 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.038089 0.121812 0.566719 7.393259 22619.034497 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.035512 0.115565 0.555195 7.925698 95094.797076 NaN NaN